Right Of Texas: A Look Into DeLay's Primary

Wednesday, March 15, 2006

A Look Into DeLay's Primary

The deeper the red, the higher the percentage.
DeLay's actually district fits on the above map somewhat like this:

DeLay should work on making sure Lampson doesn't take advantage of the weaker primary results in Fort Bend. Losing FB would be deadly..

2 Comments:

At 12:05 PM, Evan said…

I dig the maps, but I think it's important to remember that district 22 doesn't have 50% of any county, except Fort Bend.

The casual reader just clicking through doesn't get a sense of that.
At 6:44 AM, Greg in TX22 said…

DeLay has historically underperformed in Fort Bend County in both primary and general elections. Despite the fact that redistricting carved out some solidly Democrat areas of FBC to create the new majority-minority district and added some Republican areas of FBC to TX22, DeLay dropped from 60% in 2002 to 53% in 2004 in FBC after redistricting.

I conclude that DeLay has alienated a lot of Republican voters in FBC over the years by stepping on some toes of the party faithful in some primary races. Brazoria and Harris counties don't feel the pressure of DeLay in their home county politics.

I expect DeLay to win less than 50% in FBC this fall. But I also predict that the winner of TX22 will win with less than 50% districtwide. The fact that we may have a multi-candidate race makes TX22 so hard to handicap. Lampson could never win 50% plus one, but he could take the district with 45% in a four-way race.